NEW DELHI, September 15: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from parts of West Rajasthan around September 19, marking the likely beginning of the seasonal retreat from the Indian mainland.
The expected withdrawal would come around two days later than the normal date of September 17 for the region.
Monsoon Withdrawal Could Start Around September 19
According to the IMD’s latest bulletin, weather conditions are gradually turning favourable for the monsoon to begin withdrawing from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 19.
West Rajasthan is expected to receive isolated to scattered rainfall between September 14 and 18, while largely dry conditions are forecast for September 19 and 20, supporting the possibility of withdrawal.
The withdrawal from Rajasthan usually marks the first stage of the Southwest Monsoon’s retreat from India.
IMD Uses Three Main Conditions for Withdrawal
The IMD does not declare monsoon withdrawal solely on the basis of a fixed calendar date.
For the first withdrawal from western parts of northwest India, the weather department considers:
- Cessation of rainfall for five continuous days
- Formation of an anticyclone in the lower troposphere
- A significant reduction in atmospheric moisture
These conditions are assessed through weather observations, satellite imagery and atmospheric data before the official withdrawal line is announced.
Rain Likely Before Retreat Begins
Despite the approaching withdrawal phase, rainfall activity is expected to continue across parts of northwest India before September 19.
The IMD has forecast rain over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi during parts of the week, while Rajasthan could also experience thunderstorms and showers before conditions become drier.
A low-pressure system over the Rajasthan-Gujarat region has been influencing rainfall over western and central India.
Monsoon Rainfall Remains Below Normal
The expected withdrawal comes during a monsoon season that has recorded an overall rainfall deficit.
India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall from June 1 to September 14 was more than 14% below normal, according to reports citing weather department data.
Several parts of the country have experienced below-normal rainfall during the season, increasing concerns over agriculture, reservoirs and water availability in rain-dependent regions.
Withdrawal Gradually Moves Across India
Once withdrawal begins in West Rajasthan, the monsoon normally retreats gradually from other parts of northwest, central and western India.
The process continues southward over several weeks as rainfall activity declines and dry northwesterly winds become established.
According to IMD guidelines, withdrawal from the entire country is generally completed only after the circulation pattern over southern India begins shifting away from the southwest monsoon regime after October 1.
The IMD is expected to continue monitoring rainfall, moisture levels and atmospheric circulation before officially declaring the beginning of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon withdrawal.
source – India Meteorological Department / The Indian Express / Hindustan Times / Times of India
Supreme News Network
